{"id":40,"date":"2025-05-19T21:46:45","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T21:46:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/velvetcase.com\/?p=40"},"modified":"2025-05-19T21:46:45","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T21:46:45","slug":"jpmorgan-expects-dealmaking-fees-to-drop-as-tariff-and-geopolitical-tensions-mount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/velvetcase.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/19\/jpmorgan-expects-dealmaking-fees-to-drop-as-tariff-and-geopolitical-tensions-mount\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan Expects Dealmaking Fees to Drop as Tariff and Geopolitical Tensions Mount"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>May 19, 2025 | New York<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 At its annual investor presentation in New York today, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE: JPM) warned shareholders that its second-quarter investment banking fees are projected to decline by a mid-teens percentage year-on-year, as escalating U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weigh on global dealmaking&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/jpmorgan-says-charge-offs-card-portfolio-could-be-higher-2026-2025-05-19\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a>. The bank\u2019s leadership also reaffirmed its CEO succession timeline and highlighted potential AI-driven efficiency measures that could impact future headcount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tariffs Cloud Dealmaking Outlook<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told investors, \u201cThe evolving tariff environment, combined with the preexisting geopolitical tensions, adds significant uncertainty into the economic outlook.\u201d He noted that while trading revenue is likely to grow by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage, deal activity has stalled as corporate clients adopt a \u201cwait-and-see\u201d stance amid shifting trade policies&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/jpmorgan-says-charge-offs-card-portfolio-could-be-higher-2026-2025-05-19\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Barnum further cautioned that \u201cthe combination of inflation and large fiscal deficits may constrain the available policy responses in ways that further increase the risk,\u201d framing the fee slowdown as part of a broader macroeconomic puzzle&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/jpmorgan-says-charge-offs-card-portfolio-could-be-higher-2026-2025-05-19\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Succession and Strategic Priorities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to the fee guidance, JPMorgan\u2019s management reiterated that CEO Jamie Dimon\u2019s succession plans remain unchanged, despite market chatter about potential candidates. Dimon, who has led the bank for more than 19 years, \u201cremains deeply committed,\u201d according to co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh, who also oversees the commercial and investment bank division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors pressed the bank on how it plans to balance near-term revenue headwinds with long-term growth initiatives, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AI-Driven Efficiency:<\/strong>\u00a0The bank is exploring AI tools to automate select back-office tasks and credit monitoring processes, potentially reducing support-staff headcount over time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Selective Acquisitions:<\/strong>\u00a0While open to strategic bolt-ons, JPMorgan will remain disciplined, focusing on assets that complement its core banking, asset management, or payments businesses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Capital Deployment:<\/strong>\u00a0Barnum confirmed the bank will maintain its $110 billion share-buyback target for 2025 but may adjust the pace depending on market conditions and regulatory capital requirements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Reaction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Shares of JPMorgan fell 0.8 percent on the announcement, underperforming the broader S&amp;P 500\u2019s 0.2 percent slide. Analysts at UBS and Morgan Stanley downgraded their fee-revenue estimates for Q2, projecting industry-wide declines of 10\u201315 percent in advisory and underwriting fees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cJPMorgan\u2019s cautious tone reflects a broader retrenchment across Wall Street,\u201d said Lauren Murante, head of banking research at Credit Suisse. \u201cOther major banks have already signaled similar fee pressures, so this warning is consistent with a tempered M&amp;A pipeline as companies prioritize operating cash flow over transformational deals.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Broader Implications<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The slowdown in deal fees follows months of tariff escalations between the U.S. and key trading partners, including the EU and China. Since early April, the U.S. has imposed additional 10 percent duties on a range of industrial and consumer products, prompting retaliatory tariffs and supply\u2010chain adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Morgan Stanley survey of corporate treasurers showed that 62 percent have delayed planned M&amp;A or capital-raising transactions due to tariff-related cost uncertainties. \u201cWhen companies face an unpredictable duty regime, they often pivot to internal investments or operational efficiency projects instead of pursuing external growth through deals,\u201d noted Michael Ptasznik, head of M&amp;A advisory at Barclays&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnlondon.com\/articles\/wall-street-bank-executives-say-m-a-is-paused-not-slumping-because-of-tariffs-68e8484f?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial News London<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Looking Ahead<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With headline risk rising, JPMorgan\u2019s outlook underscores the challenge facing U.S. financial services firms: maintaining robust fee pools in an environment of strained cross-border trade and geopolitical friction. While trading desks may benefit from volatility, and net interest income remains a key buffer, the industry\u2019s reliance on M&amp;A and underwriting fees means a sustained period of uncertainty could weigh on profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>JPMorgan will host follow-up analyst calls next week to provide more granular breakdowns of fee drivers by region and sector. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of tariff relief or renewed deal momentum as the summer deal season unfolds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May 19, 2025 | New York&nbsp;\u2013 At its annual investor presentation in New York today, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE: JPM) warned shareholders that its second-quarter investment banking fees are projected to decline by a mid-teens percentage year-on-year, as escalating U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weigh on global dealmaking&nbsp;Reuters. The bank\u2019s leadership also reaffirmed<\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more-wrapper\"><a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/velvetcase.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/19\/jpmorgan-expects-dealmaking-fees-to-drop-as-tariff-and-geopolitical-tensions-mount\/\" title=\"Read More\"> <span class=\"button \">Read More<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>JPMorgan Expects Dealmaking Fees to Drop as Tariff and Geopolitical Tensions Mount - Velvet Case<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/velvetcase.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/19\/jpmorgan-expects-dealmaking-fees-to-drop-as-tariff-and-geopolitical-tensions-mount\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"JPMorgan Expects Dealmaking Fees to Drop as Tariff and Geopolitical Tensions Mount - Velvet Case\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"May 19, 2025 | New York&nbsp;\u2013 At its annual investor presentation in New York today, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. 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(NYSE: JPM) warned shareholders that its second-quarter investment banking fees are projected to decline by a mid-teens percentage year-on-year, as escalating U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weigh on global dealmaking&nbsp;Reuters. 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